{"id":1565,"date":"2017-01-23T16:13:00","date_gmt":"2017-01-23T16:13:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicalquarterlyblog.preliveweb.site\/2017\/01\/23\/the-snps-progressive-dilemma\/"},"modified":"2019-12-11T17:36:04","modified_gmt":"2019-12-11T17:36:04","slug":"the-snps-progressive-dilemma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicalquarterlyblog.preliveweb.site\/?p=1565","title":{"rendered":"The SNP’s progressive dilemma"},"content":{"rendered":"

It was the former Labour politician David Marquand who identified what he called the \u2018progressive dilemma\u2019 in British politics, that is the reluctance of UK voters to support parties \u2013 usually Labour or the Liberals \u2013 whose broadly progressive values and policies they otherwise claim to support.<\/p>\n

Superficially, the Scottish National Party (SNP) \u2013 currently approaching its tenth anniversary in devolved government \u2013 would appear to be an exception. Three times it has fought elections for the Scottish Parliament on a \u201cprogressive\u201d platform, and three times it has emerged as the largest party, once with an overall majority.<\/p>\n

On closer examination, however, the SNP is subject to exactly the same dynamic as its progressive counterparts on the UK stage. Indeed, as I argue in my essay for the most recent edition of Political Quarterly,<\/em> when it comes to Scottish Nationalism there is in fact a twin dilemma: in order to achieve independence, the SNP has needed to win political power, and in order to achieve political power it has had to win elections, and orthodoxy dictated that winning those in Scotland involved offering voters a centre-left agenda.<\/p>\n

But over the past five years it\u2019s become increasingly clear that the SNP\u2019s two goals, winning (and subsequently retaining) office and ultimately securing independence, are often in conflict. Indeed, two recent events illustrate the point, the devolved Scottish Government\u2019s latest Budget and the publication of its \u201cBrexit\u201d paper, Scotland\u2019s Place in Europe.<\/p>\n

The first is significant \u2013 \u201chistoric\u201d in Finance Secretary Derek Mackay\u2019s own word \u2013 because for the first time Holyrood will have (almost) complete control of income tax bands and rates north of the border. Now although the SNP has always subscribed to the low-tax orthodoxy of British politics, its rhetoric about \u201csocial justice\u201d and \u201cprogressive\u201d values have rather created the impression that, given the chance, it would be more redistributive.<\/p>\n

But in the most recent Budget, all the Finance Secretary did was forego the Treasury\u2019s planned threshold increase for the upper rate, which means middle earners in Scotland will end up paying a little more than those in the rest of the UK. On the 50p rate, however, the SNP had in the past supported its restoration, only now it uses George Osborne-like arguments about the dangers of fiscal flight.<\/p>\n

The SNP is not stupid; it knows its electorate well, and it fully realizes that while Middle Scotland likes to think of itself as \u201cprogressive\u201d and more left-wing (i.e. better) than Middle England, it\u2019s not really prepared to translate that conceit into higher taxes. In other words, the secret of the SNP\u2019s electoral success since 2007 has been a New Labour-like ability to articulate the desires of Middle Scotland and thus win political support.<\/p>\n

Increasing taxes and welfare payments (now also within its gift) risks offending moderate voters and therefore not only diminishing the party\u2019s grip on devolved government but also support for independence. In the run up to the last referendum, for example, the SNP went out of its way to moderate its message, suddenly becoming pro-NATO, stressing its support for the monarchy and promising that independence would not mean higher taxes or lower public spending.<\/p>\n

And now Brexit has increased the chances of another independence referendum, the SNP remains in safety-first mode. The essence of the Scottish Government\u2019s long-awaited Brexit paper, meanwhile, is also that of compromise. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is acutely aware that a large chunk of her own supporters voted Leave in June\u2019s referendum, thus she now accepts that Scotland, along with the rest of the UK, is set to leave the European Union.<\/p>\n

So instead her government\u2019s paper argues that the UK and, failing that, Scotland, ought to remain part of the EU Single Market. With respect to Scotland, however, this goal is quixotic, for sub-state units (i.e. a devolved Scotland) are not eligible to join either the European Economic Area or European Free Trade Association. And even if it were possible, it\u2019d need the approval of all 27 EU Member States, which seems unlikely, particularly in the case of Spain.<\/p>\n

There are also broader tensions. The SNP might depict the UK as innately regressive, prone to Conservative, reactionary governments, and the EU as generally progressive, in spite of its economic treatment of Ireland and Greece, but the point remains that the former\u2019s fiscal transfers give the Scottish Government significant leeway to sustain universal benefits like free personal care and free university tuition, while Scotland \u2013 independent or not \u2013 would likely be a net contributor to the EU.<\/p>\n

Those on the Nationalist left, however, comfort themselves with the belief that once independence has been achieved, the SNP will dispense with Blairite triangulation and govern according to properly progressive principles. That aspiration, however, rather betrays the reality that it hasn\u2019t thus far. The party\u2019s twin dilemma will continue until, and perhaps even beyond, another independence referendum.<\/p>\n

Adapted from a longer article in the <\/em>Political Quarterly, available to read here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/span>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It was the former Labour politician David Marquand who identified what he called the \u2018progressive dilemma\u2019 in British politics, that is the reluctance of UK voters to support parties \u2013 usually Labour or the Liberals \u2013 whose broadly progressive values and policies they otherwise claim to support. Superficially, the Scottish National Party (SNP) \u2013 currently […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":184,"featured_media":3038,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1390,1395,1399,1411],"tags":[2183],"coauthors":[2181],"class_list":["post-1565","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-brexit","category-comment","category-elections","category-scotland","tag-snp"],"amp_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/politicalquarterlyblog.preliveweb.site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/The-SNPs-progressive-dilemma-daniil-vnoutchkov-c_s23W8ZqFg-unsplash.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/politicalquarterlyblog.preliveweb.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1565","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/politicalquarterlyblog.preliveweb.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/politicalquarterlyblog.preliveweb.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicalquarterlyblog.preliveweb.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/184"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicalquarterlyblog.preliveweb.site\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1565"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/politicalquarterlyblog.preliveweb.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1565\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicalquarterlyblog.preliveweb.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3038"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/politicalquarterlyblog.preliveweb.site\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1565"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicalquarterlyblog.preliveweb.site\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1565"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicalquarterlyblog.preliveweb.site\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1565"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicalquarterlyblog.preliveweb.site\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcoauthors&post=1565"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}